Welcome

This blog will serve as a resource and forum for a broad-ranging discussion of predictive modeling. Any academic discipline is up for grabs here. We will discuss both academic papers and relevant news items (like, for example, the recent Congressional hearing on the controversial "hockey stick" figure, which has received considerable attention elsewhere in the blogging world). Some basic questions that will inform our posts and, we hope, the ensuing discussion, include:

• What can models tell us about the world today?
• What can models tell us about the future?
• When are models most useful?
• Under which conditions is complexity or simplicity most appropriate?
• How can we understand various forms of uncertainty in models?
  
• When can models play a useful role in decision making?
• What can we learn from the varying approaches to modeling in different disciplines and research areas?

There are probably many more questions that would fit on this list, but at least this will get us started! Stay tuned for more posts and more supporting materials in the Links/Resources page.